Latest Scottish Tax & Spend Numbers show why we are Better Together

The article below by my former Physics IV colleague Ian Gray deserves a read.  In simple language it demolishes the SNP case for a financialy secure indepndant Scotland.

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It was obvious the SNP knew the latest Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures were bad news for them when the First Minister briefed journalists instead of John Swinney whose job it usually is.

 

Of course they were right, for the sums just don’t support their rhetoric on Scotland’s financial position and their promise of economic prosperity under independence. 

 

In their White Paper, the SNP’s vision for future income is largely dependent on revenue from oil which is a volatile and finite resource. What these new GERS numbers show is that last year, if you divvy up oil on a geographic basis, Scotland’s oil revenues dropped by 44% as oil gets harder to extract from the North Sea and therefore less profitable. 

 

This is a drop in one year of £4.4billion, equal to the budget for all of Scotland’s schools combined. If we were an independent nation right now then that hole in the Scottish economy would have to be filled by a Scottish Chancellor either by huge cuts in public services, or massive tax rises. There is certainly no spare oil money for any oil fund to be set up. 

 

Over the last year the SNP have based much of their economics of independence on the assertion that Scotland’s deficit is lower than the UK’s. The latest figures show that while they’ve been arguing for separation based on this claim, the reality is that Scotland’s deficit (8.3%) is actually greater than the rest of the UK’s (7.3%). This blows their economic case for separation out of the water.  It leaves the White Paper, already shown to be wrong on currency and Europe, without a shred of credibility.

 

The GERS numbers are complex and the SNP have complicated them further in their attempt to conceal the bad news and bamboozle us with varied interpretations of the figures. However, the bottom line is that the only way in which Scotland can withstand such volatile shifts in oil revenues is through the stability and security of being part of the larger UK economy. 

 

There is no doubt that the SNP’s fiscal case for separation has been dealt a fatal blow and they need to tell the people of Scotland how public services and pensions will be paid for if independence goes ahead.

 

Yours,

 

Iain Gray

Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Finance